As India celebrates Dhanteras 2024, gold and silver are in high demand, marking a momentous year for these precious metals. Gold and silver have seen substantial price increases, making them attractive for investment, especially as inflation eases and economic volatility persists. Here’s Ventura Securities’ technical analysis and investment strategy for gold and silver in Samvat 2081.
Gold: 2024 Price Performance & Investment Strategy
- Current Price and Projections: Gold futures are trading near record highs around ₹78,900 per 10 grams. Ventura Securities projects a potential increase to ₹79,000–₹85,700, with strong support at ₹77,000. On the global COMEX market, gold is targeting between $2,760–$3,000 with a support level of $2,650.
- Investment Strategy: Ventura recommends a “buy on dips” approach, especially for gold futures on the MCX, allowing investors to accumulate gradually during market pullbacks. For long-term security, Ventura suggests investing in gold ETFs, sovereign gold bonds, or physical gold, aligning with a strategic portfolio allocation of around 10–12%.
- Long-Term Outlook: Gold’s traditional role as a hedge against inflation has evolved, now also serving as a safe-haven asset amid economic sanctions and geopolitical risks. Historically, gold has delivered stability during stock market downturns, enhancing its role in a diversified investment portfolio.
Silver: 2024 Price Performance & Investment Strategy
- Current Price and Projections: Silver prices have reached their highest level since 2012, with Ventura forecasting a surge to ₹106,000–₹120,000, with support at ₹95,500. COMEX silver targets range between $35–$40, with a key support level at $32.90.
- Supply-Demand Dynamics: The Silver Institute predicts a global demand of 1.219 billion ounces in 2024, while supply is expected at 1.004 billion ounces—creating a 215-million-ounce deficit. India’s renewable energy investments of $109 billion and China’s solar grid project, expected by 2030, are also significant drivers of silver demand, underscoring silver’s strategic role in the industrial sector.
- Investment Strategy: Ventura sees silver as an increasingly popular choice for investors seeking a more affordable alternative to gold. Silver’s industrial applications, especially in renewable energy, position it as a long-term growth asset, earning it the moniker “poor man’s gold.” This positions it as a strong portfolio diversifier, particularly given the ongoing supply constraints.
Broader Investment Insights
- Impact of Moderated Inflation: Although inflation has eased, the outlook for gold remains bullish over the long term. However, delays in rate cuts may temper short-term gains.
- Silver’s Market Appeal: Silver’s supply shortage, paired with potential Federal Reserve monetary easing, strengthens its demand outlook. With rising interest from both industrial sectors and retail investors, silver is likely to see continued inflows as it remains a valuable asset amidst global economic shifts.
Ventura Securities emphasizes that both gold and silver offer resilient investment options this Samvat 2081. By adopting a disciplined accumulation strategy, investors can capitalize on the upward trajectory of these precious metals, enhancing portfolio diversification in times of market volatility.
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